For the past few months when friends were sounding pessimistic about Obama's chances of winning I'd point out that he'll probably do better than polls predict due to an unusually large turnout among young voters and African-American voters. All polling is based on estimates of how many people in each demographic (party affiliation, age, race, gender etc.) are going to vote. A large influx of new voters makes accurate polling more difficult.
At the same time, when friends sounded confident about Obama winning I cautioned that the Republicans still hadn't launched their ugly attack machine (obviously, that has since happened) so don't get too overconfident. All along I've thought that Obama will probably win but that this will be a very close election.
No Democratic Presidential candidate has won at least 51% of the vote since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and I don't believe Obama will break that streak. Even Bill Clinton won with less than a full majority in his '96 re-election.
I've heard people make a good argument that it could be an electoral college landslide for Obama even if the popular vote is very close. That's possible, but too many of those swing states where Obama is ahead only show a small lead. Maybe I'm being overly cautious given the recent polls but it's hard not to be only cautiously optimistic after seeing Bush put in office twice.
One last thought on this ramble. I've felt since the primary that one of Obama's biggest strengths was his appeal to Midwestern voters. After winning the Iowa caucus he made Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin safely blue states, which forced the battleground into traditionally Republican territory.
Democrats need to remember this advantage the next time people start talking about nominating another candidate from the east or west coast. I've got friends from the Northeast who are still convinced that Kerry didn't do well in middle America only because it's full of "uneducated hicks." They just don't get it.
I lied. One more thought. There are very few times in history when the public is ready for major change and a capable leader emerges to deliver that change. Obama spoke in the primary about wanting a transformative Presidency that has a more lasting, profound impact on politics than someone like Bill Clinton.
I'm hopeful that this is one of those rare moments in American history when we make a significant and badly needed change of course. I'm hopeful that this will be one of those times that will be referenced years from now as a major turning point, like the Presidencies of Franklin Roosevelt, LBJ's Great Society, or Ronald Reagan. We live in interesting times.
Happy voting!