Illinois' 13th district waits to find out who will represent them in Congress

I received David Gill's email ending his Congressional campaign. With less than 1% separating the two candidates, it's perfectly reasonable for everyone to make sure the person with the most votes won, even if that took a little time.

In a race this close, it's easy to look at one thing or another that might have changed the outcome, and many of those observations will be valid. For example, having a regional press that engaged in fact-checking the candidates may have had an impact. The most frequently mentioned factor is David Hartman's independent candidacy. I suspect most of his votes came from people who liked the idea of voting for someone with "independent" next to their name, even if they knew little or nothing about him. But, Hartman did sound much closer to Gill on the issues, so maybe that helped swing the election to Davis.

More importantly, Hartman's inclusion in the race allowed Rodney Davis to run an extremely negative campaign. It meant that Davis didn't need to worry about alienating independent voters and Democrats with negative attacks because he didn't need to win their votes. He didn't need to win them over to his views. He only needed to make Democratic-leaning voters so disgusted with the race, and raise negative perceptions of Gill enough, that they would vote for an anonymous, independent alternative instead. It was a smart strategy in a district where a majority don't agree with Davis' strongly conservative positions.

The Republican News-Gazette outlined the Davis campaign strategy in an early September editorial, in which they encouraged voters in Democratic Champaign county to vote for Hartman as a protest to negative campaigning. They must have guessed that things would get uglier. The editorial even echoed Davis' complaint that "the DCCC started it" with the George Ryan ads (which were 100% accurate). The News-Gazette strategy memo explains why most of the ugly attack ads came from the Davis camp. Davis had the most to gain and almost nothing to lose by going negative. Despite their early editorial for Hartman, the News-Gazette later endorsed Davis.

Now, we get to discover who we elected. Will it be the Rodney Davis who spoke to the media about bipartisanship and working together with Democrats? Or, will it be the Davis who gave a series of highly partisan speeches, with super-partisan John Shimkus in tow, to Republican crowds at private events, where he spoke proudly of how much work he does to build up the Republican party?

Will it be the Davis who said in Normal that he supports the wind energy tax credit, or will it be the Davis who said in Springfield that tax cuts to benefit clean energy companies are the first loopholes he would eliminate? Will it be the Davis who says reducing the debt is his top priority? Or, will it be the Davis who refused to name any specific tax increases or spending cuts he would support?

I suspect (and hope) that a Davis who resembles his mentor, John Shimkus, will have a very difficult time getting re-elected in this district. Maybe Davis will suppress his inner conservative in favor of representing the district. Off-year elections like 2014 favor Republicans. There won't be an Obama landslide again, so you never know.

Gill's email gave his take on which Rodney Davis the district will tolerate:

The incredibly close outcome of this congressional election, along with the re-election of President Obama and a Democratic Senate, have proven that knee-jerk conservative policies will not succeed in this country nor be accepted by most of the people in this district. It will require compromise and common sense solutions to govern this nation and to serve this region. I have faith that the people and the press in the 13th District will be watching closely. 

What everyone knows for sure is that a result this close means the race will be hotly contested again next time. Central Illinois went many years without a truly competitive Congressional contest. With a district drawn this evenly divided, we should start getting used to more political ads. Campaigning for the 2014 Congressional race should begin sometime shortly after this Thanksgiving. Enjoy!